The tension between fostering a healthy private sector marketplace and quietly building what looks like a state-run monopoly is palpable.
The collapse of Gov.uk Verify is still fresh in people’s minds, especially the pandemic failure, with only 35% of Universal Credit applicants successfully onboarded. That £250m mistake casts a long shadow over One Login. Now, with nearly double the investment, One Login seems to be veering off the promised track—originally just a gateway to public services, now stretching into commercial digital ID territory.
Private ID providers—who were encouraged and regulated into the space—are now faced with direct government competition. This is especially critical since One Login is the only free option for Companies House, giving it an unfair edge. Meanwhile, formal warnings from the Cabinet Office Data Protection Officer and the National Cyber Security Centre should be setting off alarm bells. Yet, GDS is staying quiet on whether the issues have been resolved.
A Juniper Research report forecasts government dominance—45% user share vs. 9% for private providers. That’s not just market competition; it’s displacement. As Richard Oliphant put it plainly, no one will sink capital into a framework like DIATF if the government continues to squeeze out private solutions.
With 42 MPs publicly backing digital ID and Tony Blair’s influence quietly in the background, there’s a clear political momentum brewing. The real question is: is this a cross-party consensus building, or a sign of deeper division? Two key events—OfDIA’s industry meeting and Peter Kyle’s long-awaited sit-down with TechUK—could be turning points. But industry reps are likely to demand more than just lip service.
If the government really wants a thriving digital identity ecosystem, the path forward should include transparency on One Login’s security and roadmap, interoperability with private wallets and services, regulatory fairness to prevent state monopolization, and investor confidence-building, not undermining. Otherwise, we may just be watching Verify 2.0: The Sequel Nobody Wanted—but with even higher stakes.